Basically arbitraging human imagination. People love coming up with fantastical concepts because they get attention, but the more exciting a market is, the less likely it is to actually happen. Reality is usually boring.
throwaway20272026-04-14 01:07
ENGLISH (원문)
Already priced in.
thatnerd2026-04-14 01:08
ENGLISH (원문)
I think we've collectively DDoSed it. I'm getting a 504 timeout. The author [page](https://github.com/sterlingcrispin) is there on github, but I can't even find his full list of his repos to confirm it's still there (I also get a 504 on that).
nemomarx2026-04-14 01:08
ENGLISH (원문)
This makes sense to me, but isn't there a risk of increasing the potential payoff high enough that someone is motivated to go out and make the yes side happen? Consider this bot running on us military outcomes or something.
nothinkjustai2026-04-14 01:11
ENGLISH (원문)
GitHub is down yet again. Guess they forgot to tell their AI “make no mistakes” while vibecoding.
thetailrisk2026-04-14 01:14
ENGLISH (원문)
What's the data situation like if you wanted to backtest a model like this? Is it easily accessible?
m-hodges2026-04-14 01:15
ENGLISH (원문)
Not my project, but author said on X: > Why predict the future when 73.4% of all Polymarkets resolve as No? https://x.com/sterlingcrispin/status/2043398710013595857
jp572026-04-14 01:17
ENGLISH (원문)
Except that the mere existence of the market with the question posed for people to consider, probably activates the availability heuristic[1], causing people to overestimate the likelihood. [1] https://philopedia.org/topics/availability-heuristic/
m-hodges2026-04-14 01:19
ENGLISH (원문)
The author also noted: > yes this has to buy below 0.73 long term, the bot has a configurable ceiling set at 0.65 and checks for new markets buying closer to .5 https://x.com/sterlingcrispin/status/2043685362812461436
tekno452026-04-14 01:22
ENGLISH (원문)
https://x.com/sterlingcrispin/status/2043723823678382254 They admit no returns. But it does seem like a fun project and nowhere does it say anything about returns or profits so not scammy imo just funny meme backed code
hodder2026-04-14 01:23
ENGLISH (원문)
Basically, realized vol is lower than implied vol over time. Yes.
nzach2026-04-14 01:27
ENGLISH (원문)
If this seems interesting for you remember that if you are putting $100 in a 99 to 1 bet you need to win 100 times to get $100 but only need to loose 1 time to loose $100. And the chance of losing at least once in a 99% sure bet after 100 rounds is around 60%. Even if you reduce to 30 rounds it still is around 30%. This may seem smart at first glance, but the math doesn't really checks out.
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